Politico / Tuesday, September 6, 2016
By Yiannis Baboulias*
A year ago, Alexis Tsipras pulled off the unlikeliest of election victories. Now he’s looking rather less invincible.
The Greek prime minister and his team are hard at work publicizing a meeting of southern European leaders in Athens on September 9, to which François Hollande has accepted an invitation. The idea is to form a “southern front” on the two big issues still rocking the EU: refugees and the financial crisis.
But the meeting has another goal: Tsipras needs to show he still has international clout. Rumors of early elections are swirling in the Greek capital. And the leader of the conservative New Democracy party, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, is confident he can take on Tsipras and depose the youngest prime minister in the history of modern Greece.
How things have changed. Last summer, after six months of shambolic negotiations with Greece’s creditors, Tsipras got away with an about-face no other politician in recent memory could have pulled off.
Tsipras’ position is indeed shaky. His image was tarnished last year when he burned through the goodwill of his European and international allies and arguably even dealt a heavy blow to the credibility of the European anti-austerity movement itself, to the detriment of leftist parties such as Podemos in Spain.
To his critics, the September 9 meeting looks like a desperate move to shore up his reputation. Syriza’s domestic policies, they claim, are in tatters: The party is trailing New Democracy in the polls and the prime minister’s approval ratings are low.
Tsipras will have no great accomplishments to present at Syriza’s party conference this autumn, aside from pushing through austerity measures, some of which — like pensions reform and extensive privatizations — his predecessors balked at.
His government has also been accused of appointing “friendly faces” in the civil service — a longstanding tradition in Greek politics. In fact, a chaotic public administration has offered the opposition plenty of ammunition on a daily basis.
But Tsipras is not easily rattled. In parliament, he recently issued a stern warning to Mitsotakis: “You have been asking for elections since the day you became the leader. But I have to remind you, these polls gave you a lead in January 2015, and you lost. They said you’d win the referendum, and you lost it. And they said you’d win the elections last September, and you lost with 37 percent. Why do you think this time will be any different?”
“He is undoubtedly a successful politician,” says George Pagoulatos, professor of European politics and economy at the Athens University of Economics and one of Syriza’s most vocal critics. “His political positioning aside, he took a party from 4 percent [into] government, winning elections and referendums. And he won in September 2015, running on the opposite platform [than he did in] January.”
How much credit does he deserve for his political victories? His party’s success suggests a lot.
Mitsotakis, by contrast, is heir to a political dynasty that spans back 160 years, as well as being U.S.-educated and wealthy. Fofi Gennimata of the center-left PASOK is the daughter of an ex-PASOK minister, and for many represents years of cronyism and corruption, even as she tries to distance the party from its sinful past.
Despite polls showing Tsipras trailing other leaders in popularity, there are no serious candidates from the old parties. So far, frustration with Tsipras and Syriza’s policies has not translated into support for others.
A year ago, Alexis Tsipras pulled off the unlikeliest of election victories. Now he’s looking rather less invincible.
The Greek prime minister and his team are hard at work publicizing a meeting of southern European leaders in Athens on September 9, to which François Hollande has accepted an invitation. The idea is to form a “southern front” on the two big issues still rocking the EU: refugees and the financial crisis.
But the meeting has another goal: Tsipras needs to show he still has international clout. Rumors of early elections are swirling in the Greek capital. And the leader of the conservative New Democracy party, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, is confident he can take on Tsipras and depose the youngest prime minister in the history of modern Greece.
How things have changed. Last summer, after six months of shambolic negotiations with Greece’s creditors, Tsipras got away with an about-face no other politician in recent memory could have pulled off.
Tsipras will have no great accomplishments to present at Syriza’s party conference this autumn, aside from pushing through austerity measures.The country was on the brink of bankruptcy and appeared to be hurtling out of the eurozone. In early July, Greek voters had loudly rejected a European Commission deal for bailout cash in exchange for yet more harsh austerity measures, voting No in a polarizing, heated referendum. And yet, just a few months later, Tsiprassigned the country up for more austerity anyway. Then he called new elections. And won.
* * *
Tsipras’ position is indeed shaky. His image was tarnished last year when he burned through the goodwill of his European and international allies and arguably even dealt a heavy blow to the credibility of the European anti-austerity movement itself, to the detriment of leftist parties such as Podemos in Spain.
To his critics, the September 9 meeting looks like a desperate move to shore up his reputation. Syriza’s domestic policies, they claim, are in tatters: The party is trailing New Democracy in the polls and the prime minister’s approval ratings are low.
Tsipras will have no great accomplishments to present at Syriza’s party conference this autumn, aside from pushing through austerity measures, some of which — like pensions reform and extensive privatizations — his predecessors balked at.
His government has also been accused of appointing “friendly faces” in the civil service — a longstanding tradition in Greek politics. In fact, a chaotic public administration has offered the opposition plenty of ammunition on a daily basis.
But Tsipras is not easily rattled. In parliament, he recently issued a stern warning to Mitsotakis: “You have been asking for elections since the day you became the leader. But I have to remind you, these polls gave you a lead in January 2015, and you lost. They said you’d win the referendum, and you lost it. And they said you’d win the elections last September, and you lost with 37 percent. Why do you think this time will be any different?”
“He is undoubtedly a successful politician,” says George Pagoulatos, professor of European politics and economy at the Athens University of Economics and one of Syriza’s most vocal critics. “His political positioning aside, he took a party from 4 percent [into] government, winning elections and referendums. And he won in September 2015, running on the opposite platform [than he did in] January.”
How much credit does he deserve for his political victories? His party’s success suggests a lot.
Tsipras has incorporated the angry and marginalized into the mainstream, meaning the clash between those in power and those without has lessened.Before Syriza, no left-wing party had ever presented a viable alternative to the mainstream power balance. And before Tsipras, Syriza had no seats in parliament. Syriza overtook its opponents in large part thanks to Tsipras’ ability to appeal to the electorate as an ‘everyday’ Greek.
Mitsotakis, by contrast, is heir to a political dynasty that spans back 160 years, as well as being U.S.-educated and wealthy. Fofi Gennimata of the center-left PASOK is the daughter of an ex-PASOK minister, and for many represents years of cronyism and corruption, even as she tries to distance the party from its sinful past.
Despite polls showing Tsipras trailing other leaders in popularity, there are no serious candidates from the old parties. So far, frustration with Tsipras and Syriza’s policies has not translated into support for others.
In Tsipras’ home region of Epirus in northwestern Greece, for example, voters had traditionally backed conservative politicians and upheld the status quo. Support for the mainstream in the area has now all but disappeared.
“Tsipras is the only politician in Greece who has understood the concept of post-truth politics and has read the international landscape so well,” said an Athens-based PR specialist. “He will say, for whatever he does, that it’s not him, [that] his hands are tied because of what his predecessors did. It’s true, but it’s not the whole story. But he provides the feel-good factor that people need, they know they’re screwed but they want to feel good.”
Besides the feel-good factor, Tsipras has proven to be politically resilient. “He is a beast. The politics he can do are confrontational. He can’t produce policy, he doesn’t care, he is bored. His thing is winning elections. Give him a podium, an amphitheater, victory or defeat. He is unstoppable there,” said the PR specialist.
How long that lasts will depend in large part on how Europe chooses to handle Greece when officials return to Athens to evaluate progress on the implementation of the July 2015 deal.
There are still some question marks. The last four financial quarters were filled with bad news. The party’s reluctance to embrace privatization deals left over from previous governments and the sluggishness caused by inter-departmental quarrels are keeping investors away. Progress on employment rates and tax collection have been overshadowed by a decline in wages and purchasing power.
Syriza ministers have become embroiled in media battles that threaten to derail their credibility and their programs down the line. The Secretary of State, and Tsipras’ right-hand man, Nikos Pappas, is engaged in a full-on battle with TV station owners over a new licensing regime which will see only four licenses issued and many former big players kicked out of the market entirely. The attention isn’t doing the party any favors.
The question on everyone’s lips is whether Tsipras can now single-handedly reverse all of this. But the reality is that a strong leader is no substitute for establishing sound policies and employing competent civil servants, neither of which appear to be Tsipras’ strong suit.
That’s not to say Syriza hasn’t produced policies that benefit vulnerable social groups. But once pension reforms and new taxes start to bite, simmering anger might just boil over. The next few months are likely to bring bad news for Greece’s citizens and government alike.
Syriza has won a lot of goodwill over its handling of the refugee crisis and was recently endorsed by Angela Merkel for its humanitarian efforts. According to Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, she “actually likes Tsipras and wants to help him.”
But Syriza’s approach — trying to produce left-wing policies where possible while working within a traditional mainstream political framework — often contradicts itself.
It is still unclear whether the Left’s “golden child” will manage to stick to his four-year mandate or be forced to take to the streets again by a loss in snap elections. In parliament, he is a calming force. But if he is thrust back into an opposition role, he is likely to revert to his agitating past.
One thing is for sure: the future of Greek politics belongs to Alexis Tsipras. Whether in the PM’s chair or not, he isn’t going anywhere.
“Tsipras is the only politician in Greece who has understood the concept of post-truth politics and has read the international landscape so well,” said an Athens-based PR specialist. “He will say, for whatever he does, that it’s not him, [that] his hands are tied because of what his predecessors did. It’s true, but it’s not the whole story. But he provides the feel-good factor that people need, they know they’re screwed but they want to feel good.”
* * *
Besides the feel-good factor, Tsipras has proven to be politically resilient. “He is a beast. The politics he can do are confrontational. He can’t produce policy, he doesn’t care, he is bored. His thing is winning elections. Give him a podium, an amphitheater, victory or defeat. He is unstoppable there,” said the PR specialist.
The party’s reluctance to embrace privatization deals left over from previous governments and the sluggishness caused by inter-departmental quarrels are keeping investors away.Tsipras has incorporated the angry and marginalized into the mainstream, meaning the clash between those in power and those without has lessened. “They are still a populist party, but their approach … is very positive for this society because it carries with it a people to which Tsipras can speak better than anyone else,” says economics professor Pagoulatos.
How long that lasts will depend in large part on how Europe chooses to handle Greece when officials return to Athens to evaluate progress on the implementation of the July 2015 deal.
There are still some question marks. The last four financial quarters were filled with bad news. The party’s reluctance to embrace privatization deals left over from previous governments and the sluggishness caused by inter-departmental quarrels are keeping investors away. Progress on employment rates and tax collection have been overshadowed by a decline in wages and purchasing power.
Syriza ministers have become embroiled in media battles that threaten to derail their credibility and their programs down the line. The Secretary of State, and Tsipras’ right-hand man, Nikos Pappas, is engaged in a full-on battle with TV station owners over a new licensing regime which will see only four licenses issued and many former big players kicked out of the market entirely. The attention isn’t doing the party any favors.
* * *
The question on everyone’s lips is whether Tsipras can now single-handedly reverse all of this. But the reality is that a strong leader is no substitute for establishing sound policies and employing competent civil servants, neither of which appear to be Tsipras’ strong suit.
That’s not to say Syriza hasn’t produced policies that benefit vulnerable social groups. But once pension reforms and new taxes start to bite, simmering anger might just boil over. The next few months are likely to bring bad news for Greece’s citizens and government alike.
Syriza has won a lot of goodwill over its handling of the refugee crisis and was recently endorsed by Angela Merkel for its humanitarian efforts. According to Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, she “actually likes Tsipras and wants to help him.”
But Syriza’s approach — trying to produce left-wing policies where possible while working within a traditional mainstream political framework — often contradicts itself.
It is still unclear whether the Left’s “golden child” will manage to stick to his four-year mandate or be forced to take to the streets again by a loss in snap elections. In parliament, he is a calming force. But if he is thrust back into an opposition role, he is likely to revert to his agitating past.
One thing is for sure: the future of Greek politics belongs to Alexis Tsipras. Whether in the PM’s chair or not, he isn’t going anywhere.
* Yiannis Baboulias is a journalist based between London and Athens. His work has been featured in Al Jazeera English & America, Ch4 News, Vice, the LRB and Newsweekamong others.
Source: www.politico.eu
Source: www.politico.eu
Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:
Δημοσίευση σχολίου